Week 6

My brother text messaged me this morning asking me about my prediction for the Patriots/ Seahawks game on Sunday. I responded quickly rattling off reasons why I think the Patriots will win, but Seattle will keep it from a public execution (at home, defense is too good, uh... that's it.). After what amounted to about 7 pages worth of text messages I concluded that New England would win 24-13.

But that prediction hasn't sat well with me. Something doesn't feel right about it. I fired off a text to the Born Winner asking for his opinion, "we are going to get blown out" He replied.

Yeah, I guess that could happen. But that doesn't feel right either.

So at 9:30 am I decided to put work aside and start focusing on what will be the outcome of this week 6 matchup. Because when it comes down to it, whats really important here? Yeah, I thought so.

Three weeks ago, the New England Patritots were 1-2 and fresh off a loss to the Baltimore Ravens. If you were invested in the 2012 Patriots, it was basically the end of the world ( like, say, I dunno, if you were a fantasy owner who had so many Patriots you named your team "Tom and the Terrifics... like me).

At half time the following week in Buffalo, the Patriots had 1 TD against an awful defense. They were on their way to 1-3 and I was on my way to a broken tv remote.

But then it happened. Nobody knows what happened exactly. But something happened. Maybe it was an inspiring made for tv speach by The Hoodie. Maybe Mrs. Brady took him out back and gave him a "whats up". Whatever happened, it work because the Patriots rolled off 6 touchdowns and a field goal in the second half on there way to a 52-28 win.

Then last week against Denver, we saw more of the same; 31 points against a team likely headed back to the playoffs.

At this moment, it looks like the Patriots are who we thought they were. A  team that will give up a decent amount of points (allowed 20+ to every team not from the state of Tennessee), but will in turn hang more points on you then a division 2 basketball team.

On the other side, we have my beloved Chickens. While there offense has left a lot to be desired (ok, just the pass game), there defense has been the stuff wet dreams are made from. Through the first 5 weeks, Seattle allows the least amount of yards per game (258.6 yrds/game) and the second lowest points per game (14.0).

EDIT NOTE: defensively, they are only giving 12.2 points per game. The round number of 14 was caused thanks to the pick 6 from Carolina last week

So this matchup boils down to, can Seattle slow down New England? Lucky for us, we have a point of reference for the question. Dear readers, I direct you to the Patriots week 2 loss against Arizona.

The Cardinals, alot like the Hawks, rely on defense and anything they get offensively is somewhat extra credit. However, when you look at the box score you notice that the Patriots still were able to move the ball. So what caused a Cardinal win? Honestly, it was probably a perfect storm of Arizona playing as well as they could and New England losing a major focal point of their offensive scheme early in the game (Aaron Hernandez went down with a high ankle sprain and my fantasy aspirations early in the first quarter).

The three takeaways Arizona forced had to have helped as well.

 I don't feel confident enough to say the Hawks are going to shut down New Englands offense. I think the world of Brady and co. But I don't think they're going to get blown out. Especially when we take in account that it will be at the CLink. This will be Brady's first start in Seattle and I would imagine the crowd will be geared up to welcome him. So,unless New England rips off 14 points in the first 3 minutes of the game (ala Cleveland vs New York last week) the home crowd is going to get rockin like a playoff game. Thats always a nice advantage.

And as Arizona proved in week 2, if Seattle can force a couple turnovers while limiting their own, anything can happen.

I'm going to say New England 17 Seattle 13.

Now on the the rest of the week:

• Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tennessee Titans +7 You know how Seattle is #2 in points allowed this year? Well guess who is dead last with 36.2... that would be Tennessee. Have fun trying to stop Big Ben and a suddenly healthy Pittsburgh offense.
• St.Louis Rams vs Miami Dolphins -4 I feel like this should be flip flopped. Full disclosure, I have not watched a single live minute of the Dolphins this season. I do know they have the top ranked rush defense in the league, and STL is coming in without Amendola. So, lets say Miami and move on.
•  Dallas Cowboys vs Baltimore Raves - 3 1/2 I would like to take a moment and apologize for seemingly ruining Tony Romo's career. Since I wrote that pro- Romo column before week 2 the Cowboys have gone from beating the Superbowl champions on national tv to shitting the bed on national tv. Much like Cam Newton two weeks ago, this is a game where we are going to find out for sure who these Cowboys are. I'm calling the Cowboys cover (not confidently enough to call the win though)
• Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 Somewhat of the same thing here for the Lions. They have looked really bad at points this season (see: Titans, Tenneessee). And though the Eagles defense has looked good, this team is actually a few plays away from actually being like 1-4 right now. One of two things are going to happen in this game: Either Vick is going to remember how to be good or the Lions are going to remember how to be good. I'm going to say Detroit racks their brain first. EDIT NOTE: I originally said the Lions were going to cover. Then I finished the rest of my picks and realized I had a ton of road teams covering. So, now I think Mike Vick remembers first.
• Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns +2- Sometimes I pick games for what I would like to see happen. And as an owner of Ben Jarvis Green Ellis and someone who watch Amahd Bradshaw go apeshit against the Browns last week... I'm gonna say Bengals and feel pretty good about it.
• Indianapolis Colts vs New York Jets - 3 1/2 How in the hell are the Jets giving points in this game? Did Vegas not watch thier Houston game? Mark Sanchez ( poor dude) has the worst completion percentage of any starting Qb since JaMarcus Russell in 2009 (which seriously, no this fault. Go back and watch how many dropped passes there were. Or how many WR's were completely in the wrong spot on timing routes. You gotta feel bad for the dude) Colts are gonna win another one for Chuck Pagano.
• Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 1/2 Brady Quinn, welcome back dude. I hope you do well, there is something about your frat boy act that I find charming. Unfortunately, I don't like it well enough to pick you to cover this week.
• Oakland Raiders vs Atlanta Falcons -9 Oakland seems to do literally the exact opposite of what I think they will do every week. So my first thought was "Atlanta needs a dominate win. They've had some close ones lately." Since that was my first thought,  I'm going to go Oakland.
• New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks +4 Look, I've played this game 200 times in my head. I've seen Seattle getting thier ass whooped. I've seen them stealing a win. So I'm going to split the difference and say New England wins 20-13 ( I have never wanted to be wrong more in my life).
• Buffalo Bills vs Arizona Cardinals - 4 1/2 So who is Arizona? Are they the 4-0 team? Or are they the squad that allowed St. Louis to sodomize their qb for 60 minutes last week? I'll take Arizona, knowing full well that Mario Williams is probably primed to break Derek Thomas' sacks in a game record.
• New York Giants vs San Fransisco 49ers -6 1/2 Recently Jim Harbaugh came out and said some flattering things about Randy Moss, who by fantasy standards, has been a disapointment this year. Harbaugh said he believes we are due for some Moss centric highlights. This is probably not a bad game to have that happen in. That being said, am I really about to give 6 1/2 points against the defending Superbowl champions? No. Thought about it, but then I remembered that the best road team in the NFL are the football Giants. I'm gonna ride Eli on this one.
• Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Redskins- the site I use didn't have a spread listed for this game due to RGIII's concussion. I'm going to hold out putting a pick because I love the chance to not be wrong.
• Green Bay Packers vs Houston Texans -3 1/2 Is Houston good? You bet. Are they undefeated good? No, no they aren't. Green Bay wins.
• Denver Broncos vs San Diego Chargers -1 1/2 Bill Simmons used to pound the drum on the "don't bet against Peyton Manning during night games" rule. That rule doesn't seem to apply here. This smells like the night where Ryan Mathews turns to the cameras and says, "Hi, I'm Ryan Mathews. I'm averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Own me in your fantasy league, now, please."