Saturday, October 22, 2011

Week 7

Before I get into the picks this week we need to talk about something: HOW THE FUCK DOES CARSON PALMER GO FOR POTENTIALLY TWO FIRST ROUND PICKS!??!?!

Before the season I wrote that I wanted Carson Palmer to be a Seahawk and that he was a better alternative this season than Tavaris Jackson and Chaz Whithurst. I still believe this. But if I woke up the other morning to an ESPN headline that read, " Seahawks send 1 first rounder and potential future first round pick to Cinci for Carson" I would've blacked out.

Now see here Oakland, I wouldn't have traded two first rounders in my Madden Franchise, and atleast there I have the abillity to restart my system if I handicap my team. Look it boils down to this, following the 2006 season Oakland traded Randy Moss to New England for a 4th round draft pick. Nothing more, nothing less. Carson Palmer is worth more then Randy Moss, but not 3 rounds higher PLUS ANOTHER FIRST ROUND PICK.

This trade should've been done with a 3rd round pick with furture considerations, or at best a 2nd rounder. Consider the Raiders issues next year. They'll still have Palmer, they'll have Campbell coming back, and they will still need to find time to develop Tyrell Pryor. Good luck, Oakland.

On to the lines:



  • Redskins @ Panthers(-2 1/2) Just when I started saying nice things about the Redskins, Tim Hightower starts to suck for my fantasy team and Rex Grossman remembered who he was. I'll take Carolina, thank you very much.

  • Seahawks @ Browns (-3) Chaz Whithurst, lets try this ONE TIME. Please reward my faith.

  • Falcons @ Lions (-3 1/2) Megatrons on pace for 20 plus touchdowns. Atlanta's defense allowed Tavaris Jackson to go for 300 yards a few weeks ago. 2 +2= taking the Lions at home.

  • Bears (-1) @Buccaneers Sometimes it boils down to this: I don't know the name of Tampa's starting running back today. I'll take Chicago.

  • Texans @ Titans (-3) I have a theory that former Tennessee running back, Chris Brown, has kidnapped Chris Johnson and is currently running in his place. On the other sideline, Arian Foster is really, really good. Texans cover.

  • Chargers (-2) @ Jets Jets have been disapointing. But I had them making the playoffs and if they are to do that they better start winning. I'll take the Jets to win at home.

  • Broncos @ Dolphins (Pk) Tim. Freaking. Teabow.

  • Chiefs @ Raiders(-6) I'm not sure if Carson is starting or not. I hope he is for fantasy reasons. I still think KC blows. If Boiler starts though, and I gave KC 6 points I'm going to hate myself. Hue Jackson can't possibly start Kyle Boiler, can he? I'm going to take Oakland, but feel really, really bad about it.

  • Steelers (-4) @ Cardinals- Yeah, Arizona is the worst team in the NFC West. Pitt will win, cover and do it convincingly.

  • Rams @ Cowboys (-13) Rams are bad. Rams are starting AJ Feely. Cowboys are starting someone I have never heard of at Running Back. St. Louis with the cover ( but Dallas wins).

  • Colts @ Saints (-13) Drew Bees has been playing like shit lately. Atleast to his lofty standards. He's got to be a little frustrated. That being said: Saints with the cover and afterwards get arrested for sodomizing the Colts on National TV.

  • Packers (-9) @ Vikings To jack a twitter hash tag, #areyouseriousbro? Christian Ponder, please. Packers with the route.

  • Ravens (-8 1/2) @ Jaguars See explanation for the Packers game. Blaine Gabbert is going to get dry humped by the Ravens for 60 minutes. Or atleast till he taps out and Luke McCown gets thrown in there to mop up.

Sunday, October 16, 2011

Week 6

Have a confession to make: My wife is in Washington DC this weekend watching the Eagles Redskins game ( I love her), and I have had solo parent detail since Thursday. I thought about telling the picks blog to screw off for the second straight week. Woke up this morning with a cramp in my neck, because I slept on the couch after discovering my daughter had released 7 gallons of urine on my bed- point is, I woke up this morning feeling like the universe wanted me to write about todays games.

So here you go, Week 6 picks:

  • Rams @ Packers -14 I can't be the only one that thinks this should be like 17 right? Take the Packers.
  • Jag's @ Steelers -12.5 Steelers are going to shit on the Jag's so when the meet the Patriots in two weeks people are going to think they will. They'll cover here and get their ass beat by New England.
  • Eagles-3 @ Redskins Would you want to play a pissed off Michael Vick? I wouldn't. Philly Covers
  • 49ers @ Lions -5 When was the last time someone said, "oh the Lions and Niners game is on tv? Yes!" It's been awhile. Lions win and cover
  • Panthers @ Falcons -3.5 Falcones win, Panthers will find a way to cover.
  • Bills @ Giants -3.5 I just want to take sometime out to thank the Giants for letting the Seahawks steal that win. New Yorkers are alot nicer than I thought they were. Bills cover.
  • Texans @ Ravens -7 - No Andre? Poor Arian. Ravens are going to beat the Texans ass today.
  • Browns @ Raiders -7 - I think this will be the game Payton Hillis snaps back. It's just a feeling. Browns cover.
  • Cowboys @ Patirots -7 I really hope this is a shootout. Yes, my fantasy teams are heavily invested in the Pats and Cowboys offenses. So here is hoping 45-40 game. I guess by that hope, I'm saying the Cowboys cover. Hopefully I don't get made to look like a fool.
  • Saints -6.5 @ Buccaneers Saints win, Buccs cover
  • Vikings @ Bears -2.5 are you ready? VIKINGS WILL WIN.
  • Miami @ Jets -6.5 the Jets are not playing good football. But for as bad as they are, the Dolphins are playing exponentially worse. The Dolphins are now in the driver seat for Andrew Luck and I fucking hate them for it. Jets cover.

Friday, October 14, 2011

Bound For Glory and Beyond

TNA's flagship PPV, Bound For Glory, is Sunday. I'll be watching it but chances are, there is going to be a time or three where I'm going to wonder what the fuck they are doing. So instead of just bitching about something relentlessly I decided to write out what I would do differently. So I'm going to take the final card as it stands and give you the results if I were in charge (edit note: and alot more. I got on a tangent at the end. Buyer beware.)


  • Mexican AMerica(c) vs Ink Inc-


  • Aries(c) vs Brian Kendrick


  • Winter(c) vs Velvet Sky vs Mickie James vs Madison Rayne-


  • Crimson vs Samoa Joe vs Matt Morgan-


  • Rob Van Damn vs Jerry Lynn


  • AJ Styles vs Christopher Daniels


  • Mr. Anderson vs Bully Ray


  • Sting vs Hulk Hogan


  • Kurt Angle(c) vs Robert Roode


Thats the card. Now here is what I would do if I had control of TNA. Remember this is their Wrestlemania. You want it to feel like a season finale, but also plant seeds for the next PPV. Without further ado, my Bound For Glory card:


Mexican America(c) vs Ink Inc- I think Ink Inc's time is coming. Plus, unless you are returning Homecide to help MA retain, Ink Inc needs to win to continue this story. I say Ink Inc wins the titles, wins the return match at Turning Point and holds untill Chris Sabin returns in the next couple months and reforms Motor City Machine Guns with Alex Shelly sometime in early 2012.


Aries(c) vs Brian Kendrick- With rumors that MA vs II is moved to the pre-show, Aries and Kendrick will absolutely lead off the ppv. Aries just got the title from Brian in September and TNA has mentioned they want to build up the X Division. Aries losing would not do that. I say he wins decisively (not because I want Kendrick to get burried or anything, far from, I just want Aries to look as strong as possible and set up a long, long title run). As for what Aries does after this match, I'm not sure. I guess Alex Shelly doesn't have anything to do untill Sabin gets back, so maybe a mini program with Shelly for the rest of 2011 (or God Forbid you bring back Amazing Red, I'm just saying).


Winter(c) vs Sky vs Rayne vs James- I don't give a shit. Winter should retain since they've been playing hot potatoe with that title for two years now. But it's the KO division, so they won't. Since every girl not named Velvet Sky has held the title this year, they are probably thinking the fans are waiting for Velvet Sky's first run. We aren't. No one has cared since Kong and Kim left.


That being said, if I were booking it, I would have Winter retain but Gail Kim return and have them stair each other down. Not sure what you would build the story over, but this division needs Gail Kim and Gail Kim needs a job.


Crimson vs Somoa Joe vs Matt Morgan- Here is what I believe: Matt Morgan mainevented two Pay Per Views last year and he was probably going to win the BFG series had he not gotten hurt this summer. Crimson is undefeated because of what I can only guess is some attempt at creating a new Goldberg. Hogan and Bischoff seemingly hate, and don't understand, Somoa Joe.


Here is what else I know: Crimson isn't anywhere near ready to step up in the Mainevent. No one gives a shit. Goldberg felt bigger because of the rabid crowds that used to pack out Nitro. TNA needs to take Impact on the road, and show us people give a shit about him before we will.


So if I were booking this: I would have Okada return and take out Crimson while Joe flattens Morgan with a chair or puts him through a table (since I guess Joe is working as the heel here). Joe pins Morgan ( allowing them to keep calling Crimson 'undefeated' like they did with Christian during his TNA run). Joe needs a win, bad. He can be a maineventer if they let him. Saldy, Okada was seemingly let go so this is not going to fly. The idea remains the same. Joe scores the win on Morgan.(what will TNA do though? Morgan beats Joe with a carbon foot print and I throw a channel changer through a wall).


Edit Note:Which ever rout they go, Joe or Morgan, they need to rack up wins at Turning Point and Final Resolution so they can be primed for a title match at Genesis. I'll explain later on.


Rob Van Dam vs Jerry Lynn-Full Metal Meyham- When I was originally thinking about this match, I would've had Jerry Lynn win so they could get one more match between the two at Turing Point in November. But Full Metal Meyham is typically a match that puts an exclamation point on a feud. Rob Van Dam is going to be around after this feud; Jerry Lynn, probably not. So I'm torn.


Would Jerry Lynn really stick around just to drop two ppv matches with Van Dam? And if they ended this feud on Sunday, who is RVD got next? The Sting and Anderson boats have left the station and he spent the end of the summer in the BFG series. OK, I'm back on the Lynn boat.


Lynn wins in an incredibly violent match. We are talking blood everywhere. It's going to start a Randy 'The Ram' Chant, trust me. This will set up a RVD v Lynn loser leaves TNA match at Turning Point.


AJ Styles vs Christopher Daniels- If Vince Russo has a hand in booking this match, Kaz will run in and turn on AJ allowing Daniels to win and further splintering Fortune. Hopefully, he isn't allowed in the same room as the bookers for this match.


AJ Styles can win here and they can continue this feud one more PPV if they want. Daniels and AJ have that kind of history, and Daniels has that kind of credibillity. Also, AJ styles needs to be in the mainevent. Losing at BFG is not the way to do that. AJ Styles wins via Spinal Tap (thats right, ST is getting dusted off and brought out).


Bully Ray vs Ken Anderson- Falls Count Anywhere- Personally, I need a break from Anderson. I love him, but TNA creative really fucked him up this year. He started out so hot too. But the combonation of quick title runs and multiple face/heel turns Anderson has gotten stale. He has picked it up lately, but I need him away from the Mainevent for a minute or three. I'd have Bully Ray win. You can have Anderson get his ass beat hard enough to stay off tv or you could do this...


Ray and Anderson start the fight backstage. THey take this fight EVERYWHERE. Like the Pope vs Suicide from two years ago, only super violent. After ten minutes or so, they head to the ring. Both hemoraging blood. Immortal comes out and jumps Anderson. They beat the snot out of him. Ray scores the win. Immortal continues the beating of Ken Anderson.


HERE COMES JEFF HARDY. Immortal leaves the ring as Hardy huffs and puffs in the ring with whatever weapon he came with. Jarrett, who is standing outside the ring with Gunner and Abyss (because Ray has gone to the back to get his head patched up), gets on the mic and says, "boy, you stuck your nose in the wrong groups business." as Immortal circles the ring. Hardy grabs a mic and says, "if we are going to do this, lets do this right. You 3, on us 3."


Fortunes music hits and James Storm and Kaz come out to join with Jeff Hardy for a six man tag match.


James Storm, Kaz and Jeff Hardy vs Abyss, Gunner and Jeff Jarrett-Gunner is going to wrestle most of the match, and Abyss is going to show no interest in coming in. This is going ot upset Gunner who spends alot of time barking at Abyss in between moves. The finish comes when Abyss (who has shown to have issues with his treatment in the group), give Gunner a Black Hole Slam and walks away. Jarrett then finds himself 1-3. Storm, Kaz and Hardy corner him. Storm drills Jarrett with the Super Kick, right into Kaz's Fade to Black, and Jeff Hardy finishes it off with a Swanton.


Hardy gets his first win back, gets a sign of approval from the top face faction in TNA, Anderson takes a tv timeout to recharge his character and Gunner v Abyss is locked and ready to go into one of those typical violent Abyss feuds for the rest of the year. Gunner needs a mean streak and Abyss can bring it out.


Hulk Hogan vs Sting- Street Fight for Control of TNA- Hogan's contract supposedly just got extended another 2 years. Hopefully that was a cover up to save the match's finish after it had been leaked that Hogans deal was expiring. I'm going to say Sting wins, and due to Hogans physical condition, he wins quickly. Dixie regains control.


Kurt Angle(c) vs Robert Roode- Roode has been so hot lately he has fire shooting out of his ass. He won the BFG series, and just to further prove that he could win the title he has beat everyone in his group and won in a handicapped match on Impact last night. TNA is telling us ' Roode could win this thing!' by giving him impressive win after win. I say he is losing.


Angle wins after a match with an insane amount of near falls. Much like the Angle/Hardy at No Surrender '10. Picture that match without the extra time bit.


Here is why I would do that: 1, Roode hasn't had a singles feud in like 3 years. I need to see a guy in a top storyline before I have him win the top title at the top event. Feel me? Angle needs to keep it. Plus, I gave the Philly crowd an AJ Styles, Sting, and Jeff Hardy win. You gotta give a little to get a little.


So what happesn after Roode loses? Glad you asked. After the match, Angle goes to shake Roodes hand like he did with Morgan at BFG '09, and when Roode goes to accept Angle flips him off and walks off.


Roode comes out on Impact next week and tells the world that "Bound For Glory was the biggest match of my career. I put it all on the line, and came up a little short. When I was laying on the mat, after the 1-2-3, I was crushed. But I lost to Kurt Angle, at Bound For Glory, so it is, what it is. But then Kurt had to humilliate me. On the biggest night of my career. Now this is personal." He proceeds to challenge Angle again at Turning Point for the title. Angle originally tells him he doesn't deserve it, but since Dixie Carter is back in control (after the Sting win) she makes the match official as a 'fuck you' to Kurt. He comes up short again, maybe this time Angle retains by a blind chair shot.


Now Roode is starting to get pretty bent up over it. He wants another chance. Dixie says she can't just give him another title match, now he has to go back out and earn it again. So she sets up a 10 man battle royal with Somoa Joe, AJ Styles, Christopher Daniels, RVD, Jerry Lynn, Matt Morgan, Robert Roode, Bully Ray, Eric Young, and Jeff Hardy.


AJ Styles eliminates Robert Roode to win the title and it's AJ Styles vs Kurt Angle at Final Resolution. This sets up Robert Roode snapping, like Christian and turning Heel at Final Resolution costing AJ the title. This can branch into a couple cool stories. 1, the obvious, AJ vs Roode both chasing the title. 2, the lesser but equally as enteraining, where is Storm going to side. He is Roodes tag team partner, but he is a member of Fortune. Kaz will be very curious, boarderline harrassing Storm to announce his intentions.


This can set up a scenerio where AJ Styles vs Robert Roode at Genesis with Kaz and Storm at ringside to make sure nothing fishy happens. AJ Styles loses when Storm enters the ring and super kicks him into Roodes Spinebuster. This gives Roode another big win but keeps AJ with a claim to the mainevent. At Against All Odds we are treated to AJ Styles vs Kurt Angle vs Robert Roode, and AJ Styles wins the title (also Kaz and Storm are now going to beef).


Fuck, I love this story so I'm going to keep going. Kurt Angle obviously gets a rematch, so you gotta keep Roode occupied for a month while Angle and AJ go at it again. Enter Crimson and his now year and some change undefeated streak. He wants a title match, Roode wants another one. They are set to do battle at Victory Road, which thanks to a James Storm super kick (he has become Roodes unofficial body guard- slave boy) Roode beats Crimson ending his streak (that no one really cares about but it's great for storyline purposes). Crimson is now invested in this story with LOCKDOWN coming up. A Pay Per View famous for having 4 v 4 cage matches.


So the Mainevent of Lockdown is AJ Styles, Kaz, Crimson and ______(insert someone else) vs Robert Roode, James Storm, (insert two wrestler preferably someone who is feuding with the forth man on AJ's team). Roode needs another win to build his world title case, and he gets that win over Kaz.


This all leads to the final showdown between AJ Styles, the champion, and Robert Roode at Sacrafice. Make this a 30-35 minute classic, and finally, Robert Roode goes over on AJ Styles. Setting him for a long summer run, possibly taking the title into Bound For Glory.



You're welcome TNA.

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Status Update

I was out of town last weekend so I didn't get around to writing about the week 4 lines. Don't you worry your little faces anymore, I'll have the week 5 lines posted by Saturday.

Before I go away, Seahawks are two blown special team plays and one missed field goal away 4-0. They've played 3 of those games on the road. Somehow, despite some stetches of brutal play, the Hawks go into their bye week at 2-2.

Andrew Luck, enjoy Miami.

Saturday, October 1, 2011

Week 4: BW Returns

I admit it, I can be a bit of a dumbass. Sometimes I get to multitasking, and when I do, it's not uncommon for me to screw up whatever it is I am doing. For example: maybe instead of writing lecture notes in class, I'm working on my picks column. And when it comes time to do something simple, again for this is for instance, maybe I don't look very hard at a score/line and I give myself a loss when it should be a win. Or maybe a win when it should've been a push.

Ok, I gotta come clean. I did that. So I went back, and re evaluated my season so far. My legit record against the spread is 25-20-3 and thats after a 10-6 week 3.

As punishment for my oversight, I've invited the Born Winner back this week for his second guest column. He felt my picks were missing perspective-and that being the perspective of a degenerate gambler. Which he is.

Before I send you off to BW's picks, here is a quick rundown of my week four:


  • Saints -7 over Jags

  • Lions +1 over Cowboys

  • 49ers +9 over Eagles

  • Rams +2 1/2 over Redskins

  • Titans PK over Browns

  • Vikings -1 1/2 over Chiefs

  • Bills -3 over Bengals

  • Bears 6 1/2 over Panthers

  • Steelers +3 1/2 over Texans

  • Gaints -1 over Cardinals

  • Seattle + 4 1/2 over Falcons

  • Patirots -5 over Raiders

  • Packers -12 1/2 over Broncos

  • Chargers -7 over Dolphins

  • Jets +3 over Ravens

  • Buccaneers -10 1/2 over Colts


  • Now that thats taken care of, Here is BW's thoughts on Week 4:


    My picks column will be a little different than Andy's because I don't care about every single game, so if I don't like either team I am not going to pick one of them. The main reason being I actually bet on the games. I have also been messing around with some teasers this year to mixed success, so I'm going to talk about a teaser I like this week.


    Another theme I have tried to keep with this year is I have selected a couple of teams that I think are better than Vegas and the general public; and a couple of teams that are worse. I check who these teams are playing every week and see if the value is better or worse.

    The team I pick in each game is the one in Bold.

    Teams I think are worse:
    49'ers- Terrible all around, don't score points, bad in the Red Zone. The type of team that can be shutout.
    Panthers- I don't believe in Cam Newton, he will regress.
    Falcons- Mediocre offensively and defensively, get lumped in with the great teams.
    Ravens- Worse than people think defensively, I don't trust Flacco in big games.
    Steelers- Offensive line is so abysmal they can lose to any team as they proved on Sunday night by almost losing to the beaten down colts.

    Teams I think are better:
    Broncos- They can still score points, if they are a big underdog I will take them and hope for them to cover.
    Bucs- Solid offensively and defensively, I like them in low point spread games to win.
    Giants- Like the Broncos, they aren't very good overall, but they can score a lot of points and cover spreads.


    49'ers @ Eagles -2
    Dolphins @ Chargers PK
    Patriots +1 @ Raiders

    I chose a 7 point teaser to drop all of these lines by 7.

    Eagles- I think the Niners are terrible and there is very little chance they can win on the road. That being said I don't think the Eagles would cover the normal -9 spread in this game. The Eagles are in a must win situation after losing two straight.

    Chargers- Once again I like the home favorite. The Dolphins aren't terrible, but I would be pretty surprised if Henne was able to pull it out on the road.

    Patriots- If the Patriots lose two straight to the Bills and the Raiders the world will end.

    Lions at Cowboys pk- I Don't like this game at all. The Lions are overvalued right now due to a hot start and I will probably be picking against them in the future, but I don't think this is the game to start. The Cowboys can literally lose to anyone any day and they are beat up, but I could see this game going either way.

    Saints -8@ Jaguars- I like the Saints a lot in this game Jacksonville is terrible, they are a one-dimensional team that can only run the ball with a porous defense. There is no way they keep up with the high flying Saints attack. That being said the Saints have been in some close games this year and the Jags have a knack for getting lucky.

    Redskins @ Rams +2.5- Stay away game. Rams desperately need a win at home here, and everyone knows they are still in the hunt for the putrid NFC West despite being winless. I haven't decided if they REALLY suck yet or if they just kind of suck.

    Titans @ Browns PK- Stay away, I would have liked the Titans in this one with the big play ability of Kenny Britt. The way Chris Johnson looks right now he could be out of the league in two years. I don't know why teams keep paying for RB's when cheap options pop up out of nowhere every year. Watching the Titans just makes me sad and miss Matt Hasselback.

    Bills @ Bengals +4- The Bills sure put up a lot of points with a lot of nobodies. I don't see the Bengals offense keeping up with them in this one, but this game will be closer than people think. Bills games always come down to the final 8 minutes.

    Vikings @ Chiefs +3- I really like the Vikes in this one. They blew double digit halftime leads in their first three games against a couple of decent teams. I don't see them going 0-4. Thomas Jones is a corpse and Mccluster is too small, the Chiefs are going to have a hard time running the ball, and you never want to have money on Matt Cassel airing the ball out.

    Panthers @ Bears -6.5- I have heard a lot of people liking the Panthers in this one, but I absolutely don't trust Newton on the road. I think he does his best Jay Cutler impersonation in this one with a couple of interceptions with at least one going to the house. I am absolutely certain this will happen because I am playing the Bears D in fantasy this week and I am 0-3.

    Steelers @ Texans -3.5- I grabbed the Texans in this one at -3 and I like them a lot more there. Ben is going to get hit a lot in this one and Joseph should be able to contain Mike Wallace from having a big game. This one is going to be high scoring. So you might want to grab the over of 45 in this one too.

    Falcons @ Seahawks +6- As a Hawks fan I hate to pick against them, especially at home. I also think Tavaris is the worst starting QB of the last 5 years. That being said I still hate the Falcons overall and could see this game coming down to a field goal. All of that adds up to a stayaway. Bonus tip: Roddy White scores at least 1 TD in this game. Marcus Trufant couldn't cover me on a fade route.

    Giants -3@ Cardinals- Last week the Cardinals scored 10 points on the Seahawks. The Giants D isn't much better than the Hawks but their offense is. I am riding the Giants this year for better or worse.

    Broncos +13 @ Packers- Once again, the Broncos can put up points and I like the points in this one.

    Jets +3.5 @ Ravens- This feels like a close game to me and once again I don't trust Flacco in Sunday night games. Also, all of the Sunday night games this season have come down to the wire and I don't expect that to be any different this week.

    Colts +10 @ Bucs- The Bucs have a knack of stinking it up in the first half which should keep the Colts from having Painter air it out. After watching Painter last week it was obvious why the Colts brought in Collins and it is inexplicable why Reggie Wayne was upset about this.

    I put my money where my mouth is on:
    Giants
    Texans
    Vikings