Ok, I gotta come clean. I did that. So I went back, and re evaluated my season so far. My legit record against the spread is 25-20-3 and thats after a 10-6 week 3.
As punishment for my oversight, I've invited the Born Winner back this week for his second guest column. He felt my picks were missing perspective-and that being the perspective of a degenerate gambler. Which he is.
Before I send you off to BW's picks, here is a quick rundown of my week four:
Now that thats taken care of, Here is BW's thoughts on Week 4:
My picks column will be a little different than Andy's because I don't care about every single game, so if I don't like either team I am not going to pick one of them. The main reason being I actually bet on the games. I have also been messing around with some teasers this year to mixed success, so I'm going to talk about a teaser I like this week.
Another theme I have tried to keep with this year is I have selected a couple of teams that I think are better than Vegas and the general public; and a couple of teams that are worse. I check who these teams are playing every week and see if the value is better or worse.
The team I pick in each game is the one in Bold.
Teams I think are worse:
49'ers- Terrible all around, don't score points, bad in the Red Zone. The type of team that can be shutout.
Panthers- I don't believe in Cam Newton, he will regress.
Falcons- Mediocre offensively and defensively, get lumped in with the great teams.
Ravens- Worse than people think defensively, I don't trust Flacco in big games.
Steelers- Offensive line is so abysmal they can lose to any team as they proved on Sunday night by almost losing to the beaten down colts.
Teams I think are better:
Broncos- They can still score points, if they are a big underdog I will take them and hope for them to cover.
Bucs- Solid offensively and defensively, I like them in low point spread games to win.
Giants- Like the Broncos, they aren't very good overall, but they can score a lot of points and cover spreads.
49'ers @ Eagles -2
Dolphins @ Chargers PK
Patriots +1 @ Raiders
I chose a 7 point teaser to drop all of these lines by 7.
Eagles- I think the Niners are terrible and there is very little chance they can win on the road. That being said I don't think the Eagles would cover the normal -9 spread in this game. The Eagles are in a must win situation after losing two straight.
Chargers- Once again I like the home favorite. The Dolphins aren't terrible, but I would be pretty surprised if Henne was able to pull it out on the road.
Patriots- If the Patriots lose two straight to the Bills and the Raiders the world will end.
Lions at Cowboys pk- I Don't like this game at all. The Lions are overvalued right now due to a hot start and I will probably be picking against them in the future, but I don't think this is the game to start. The Cowboys can literally lose to anyone any day and they are beat up, but I could see this game going either way.
Saints -8@ Jaguars- I like the Saints a lot in this game Jacksonville is terrible, they are a one-dimensional team that can only run the ball with a porous defense. There is no way they keep up with the high flying Saints attack. That being said the Saints have been in some close games this year and the Jags have a knack for getting lucky.
Redskins @ Rams +2.5- Stay away game. Rams desperately need a win at home here, and everyone knows they are still in the hunt for the putrid NFC West despite being winless. I haven't decided if they REALLY suck yet or if they just kind of suck.
Titans @ Browns PK- Stay away, I would have liked the Titans in this one with the big play ability of Kenny Britt. The way Chris Johnson looks right now he could be out of the league in two years. I don't know why teams keep paying for RB's when cheap options pop up out of nowhere every year. Watching the Titans just makes me sad and miss Matt Hasselback.
Bills @ Bengals +4- The Bills sure put up a lot of points with a lot of nobodies. I don't see the Bengals offense keeping up with them in this one, but this game will be closer than people think. Bills games always come down to the final 8 minutes.
Vikings @ Chiefs +3- I really like the Vikes in this one. They blew double digit halftime leads in their first three games against a couple of decent teams. I don't see them going 0-4. Thomas Jones is a corpse and Mccluster is too small, the Chiefs are going to have a hard time running the ball, and you never want to have money on Matt Cassel airing the ball out.
Panthers @ Bears -6.5- I have heard a lot of people liking the Panthers in this one, but I absolutely don't trust Newton on the road. I think he does his best Jay Cutler impersonation in this one with a couple of interceptions with at least one going to the house. I am absolutely certain this will happen because I am playing the Bears D in fantasy this week and I am 0-3.
Steelers @ Texans -3.5- I grabbed the Texans in this one at -3 and I like them a lot more there. Ben is going to get hit a lot in this one and Joseph should be able to contain Mike Wallace from having a big game. This one is going to be high scoring. So you might want to grab the over of 45 in this one too.
Falcons @ Seahawks +6- As a Hawks fan I hate to pick against them, especially at home. I also think Tavaris is the worst starting QB of the last 5 years. That being said I still hate the Falcons overall and could see this game coming down to a field goal. All of that adds up to a stayaway. Bonus tip: Roddy White scores at least 1 TD in this game. Marcus Trufant couldn't cover me on a fade route.
Giants -3@ Cardinals- Last week the Cardinals scored 10 points on the Seahawks. The Giants D isn't much better than the Hawks but their offense is. I am riding the Giants this year for better or worse.
Broncos +13 @ Packers- Once again, the Broncos can put up points and I like the points in this one.
Jets +3.5 @ Ravens- This feels like a close game to me and once again I don't trust Flacco in Sunday night games. Also, all of the Sunday night games this season have come down to the wire and I don't expect that to be any different this week.
Colts +10 @ Bucs- The Bucs have a knack of stinking it up in the first half which should keep the Colts from having Painter air it out. After watching Painter last week it was obvious why the Colts brought in Collins and it is inexplicable why Reggie Wayne was upset about this.
I put my money where my mouth is on:
Giants
Texans
Vikings
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