If I've learned anything over my 15 years of watching Baseball it's this: you can find out everything you need to know by how your team with how they play on opening day! With that being said, the 2010 Seattle Mariners have timely hitting, solid Defense, and a certified Money-in-the-Bank Ace. We're not only going to return to the playoffs for the first time in near a decade, but as sure as I sit here at my cubical today, will be winning the World Series come October.
If only it was that easy.
In reality, the state of my Fan-dom Union is this :I'm nervous coming into the season. If we went back in time to December when my father called me while I was Christmas shopping to tell me the Seattle Mariners just pulled a West Coast jack move and took Cliff Lee from the Phillies, well we would probably have a conversation like this:
You: So, Belvin, what do you think about your Mariners chances this year?
Me: (searching for words, look of complete shock on my face... only able to make satisfied grunt noises).
You: Does that mean you're happy?
Me: (finally, after the blood returns back north to occupy my head) I think so. First Chone Figgins, now Cliff Lee? We'll see how the rest of the winter goes... but what a start!
Then imagine after we deal Carlos Silvas fat, unproductive ass to the Cubs for the always angry, always entertaining(as long as you're watching from a safe distance and he isn't on your team) Milton Bradly:
You: Milton Brady? Wow. That could be bad.
Me: Yes, it could be. It could also be good. Remember Jose Guillen?
You: True, but he gets ran out of every team he plays for.
Me: True, but even if he goes Artest Mele on us, he will still be more productive then Carlos Silva.
You: (nod in submission)
Now if you talked to me as Spring Training camps were about to open up:
You: Do you think your team improved?
Me: Chone Figgins, Cliff Lee, Milton Brady, Casey Kotchman? Yes, yes I do. No more Kenji, no more Beltre, NO MORE SILVA!? Yes we got better. Our infield is a vacuum, and we have two aces in our rotation. To make matters worse, our division got worse.
You: so you think you will win the division?
Me: Yes, not only do I think we will win the division, but i think we could go deep into the playoffs.
Thats right I said it. And before a week ago, I said it alot. Now I'll admit, lately, the flaws on this club have become a little more apparent to me, and I'm no longer admiring my favorite club with rose colored glasses on. Doesn't mean I don't believe in their potential, I just no longer believe it's as of sure of a bet as I once did.
To be fair to early March me, here was my reasoning for being so high on my team (not including the fact that ESPN analysts are also drinking my koolaid). Last year we were the American Leagues best pitching team (on American League team with a sub 4 era). On top of that we were unquestionably the top Defensive squad in ALL of the majors. Last years team had a major flaw that kept us out of serious contention and that was the fact that outside of Ichiro, Jose Lopez, Russel Branyan and Franklin Guitierez we couldn't hit the ball. In fact despite the fact that we had the best ERA in the American League and posted a winning record, we still gave up more runs then we scored.
Not going to win division crowns with that statistic highlighting your season.
So lets look at this years team. Safeco field is built for defenses and pitching. Obviously those are going to be the most important. Defensively 2010 we shouldn't see much of a change this year. True, we lost former Gold Glover Adrian Beltre, but we countered his loss with adding Chone Figgins( who is no slouch with the leather (half way through the Spring the M's decided to experiment by sending Jose Lopez over to third and apparently they liked it because the position swap is still going).
We upgraded Firstbase's defense by letter Russel the Muscle go, and bringing in Casey Kotchman. Casey is leaps better the Russel at first, but we could end up really missing Russel's bat. The rest of the D is solid.
Guitierez is known as the best Center Fielder in the game and as aquired the nickname for his position (much like Right Field is known as 'Area 51') "Death To Flying Things." Bradly is servicable out there, and Ichiro untill further notice is still Ichiro(which in roughly translates into 'AWESOME!' in Japenese).
The pitching has the potential to hurt some feelings. We had one of the elite staff's in baseball last year which was anchored by his Cy Young runner up Felix Hernandez. Despite good numbers from our staff, we were unquestionably missing some talent in the starter department. So what does the front office do? Well they some how squeeze their way into trade talks with Toronto and Philadelphia, present both teams with Hookers and Blow and steal 2008 AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee-in a contract year- from the Phillies.
So if you're having trouble keeping track at home coming into the season we have a 1-2 punch of Felix and Cliff Lee (and when Erik Bedard gets healthy, he will run the three or four). God bless Jack-Z.
Unfortunatly, Cliff Lee had some issues involving an altercation during a Spring Training game that left him with an ab strain and a possible 5 game suspension. Those could possibly keep him out of action for a few weeks, which isn't ever good. But as of this writing, he has been throwing pain free and they have a scheduled hearing to appeal the suspension for later in April.
All in all, our pitching (once healthy) is going to be filthy. Two certified aces, and a good bulpen. Yes please.
Our hitting will also hurt feelings, just not the way that our pitching will. Long story short, our hitting could very well suck (outside of Ichiro, Chone, Jose and three hot weeks of Guitierez). I don't trust Milton Bradly to not melt down, I don't trust Griffey or Sweeny to keep their body parts intact, and I sure don't trust near Mendoza Line hitting Rob Johnson. Sure anyone one of those guys could string together a season, and I guess it's always possible that Casey Kotchman could wake up and remember that once upon a time he was a top prospect with the bat, but I'm not going to hold my breath. I'm preparing for the worse.
So where do I stand on the season? I feel like we could win the division. Of course, everything has to go right and by everythign going right I mean this:
- Our pitching needs to get and stay healthy. Cliff Lee and Erik Bedard in particular. We can't afford a big pitcher to go down. Felix included. If Bedard doesn't bounce back, or has another injury, it's going to be tough. If Lee or Felix miss considerable time, forget 2010.
- We have to run, run, run. We're gonna play a style of ball that was once upon a time called "National League" style. That means we're going to steal, bunt and scrap runs together.
- Milton can't melt down, and we have to get a suprise year out of atleast one other player. Last year, Jack Z took a flier on Russel the Muscle who rewarded us with his first 30 home runs season. He is gone, so now we gotta find someone else. Whether it be Kotchman, Johnson, or maybe Griffey nut's up-someone needs to do it.
- We need to make a trade that brings us a big hitter. Someone to plug into the middle of the order. More specifically, we need to get Adrian Gonzalez.
If these things happen, we could be scary. Defense and pitching win in October, and baring injury, we'll have that in spades.
Personal prediction: I feel like we're going to do what needs to be done (personel wise) to be put in position to win. Jack Z is a maverick and seems like he is willing to do what it takes to win. The only question now is, how and for who will he trade. If we get Adrian Gonzalez, the whole make up of this team changes for the better. All of a sudden, Ichiro and Chone have a reliable masher driving them home. Pressure is taken of Kotchman to perform, and anything we get from him would be a bonus. Not to mention Lopez and Bradly get a little sexier since they aren't the 'producers' of the line up.
Maybe it's a good sign that Felix didn't look super sharp tonight, but we still won. And that we had a 4 RBI debut from Kotchman, and a solo homer from Rob Johnson (two guys I previously said I don't expect much from).
This in mind, I feel like we win the division. I know it's only only one game and that over the last two weeks Texas has begun to scare me more and more, but something feels good about this year. I like our players, I love the managment, and I love our direction.
One last note: I have simulated the 2010 season all the way through a few times and every time the Mariners win the division, and once we won the World Series. Of course Bedard, Lee, and Felix never got hurt. In fact we didn't have any major injuries.If only life were like a video game and I could turn injuries off.
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